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  4. Nick Marro: How Will the Trade War Affect Different Provinces?

‎Farming Simulator 18 on the App Store

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RIP Vet Debt. Simma Sky: Moon Occultation Occultation sounds like some weird, creepy thing. Geminid Meteor Shower. In the key export centres of Guangdong and Jiangsu, shipments to the U. For Guangdong specifically, the large amount of transhipments to the U.

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Even in provinces where exports as a percentage of total GDP are relatively low, exposure to U. Many of these provinces are uncomfortably vulnerable to the escalation of the U.

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In highly exposed provinces like Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, a large proportion of exports are in the electronics and machinery industries — both of which sit squarely in the cross-hairs of U. The Economist Intelligence Unit has found a similar situation in terms of trade exposure and export composition across a number of largely coastal prefectures as well, including Dalian, Foshan, Fuzhou, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Xiamen, among others.

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The impact of the trade war on business sentiment will also be an important factor for companies operating in these regions, particularly in consumer-facing sectors. Although such concerns have been overplayed, the data do indicate that urban consumption expenditure growth has slowed since the beginning The data do suggest, however, that consumers — primarily in urban areas — are tightening their belts in the face of a cooling economy.

While we believe that upgrading not downgrading remains the dominant theme in many consumer-facing industries, disruptions caused by the U. Although we expect the drag on retail sales from higher import tariffs to be relatively modest — constrained by both the relatively small number of imported U.

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Consumer activity will also be disproportionately hit in coastal provinces and cities where jobs, incomes and wage growth are tied to export-oriented manufacturing industries. Against a background of rising labor costs in China, multinationals had already been looking to diversify production to more cost-competitive locations.

Nick Marro: How Will the Trade War Affect Different Provinces?

We expect the trade war to accelerate this trend, which may in turn translate into weaker foreign investment at the local level. The company may dial down or withdraw some of these China-based operations, including its plant in Tianjin, with the U. Foxconn and Pegatron, two large Taiwanese electronics manufacturers and key suppliers for the iPhone , have already publicly mulled plans to rely on production in factories outside of the Chinese mainland, including in Taiwan, Europe and the U. This will divert resources away from their existing plants, such as in Shenzhen and Zhengzhou.

The shift of export-oriented manufacturing out of China, however, will take time, and the general structure of regional supply chains is unlikely to change in the short term.